Like almost everyone, I woke this past Saturday to news that the United States had attacked Iran. Whether we should have or not will be determined by history. Virtually none of us are privy to the intelligence from the area and what might have been the trigger for this action. Again, history will tell us what those were and if it was justified.
I am not a fan of his style, (don’t get me started on the “gold everywhere” motif) but you have to give credit where it is due. President Trump is masterful at doing and saying things that take news cycles away from issues he does not want to talk about. Like clockwork, he will post an outrageous comment or photo online when the news cycle starts to focus on Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) activities that reflect badly on his administration. The news outlets switch to talking about “Crazy Trump”, they forget that unpredictable behavior is his brand. He uses it as a tool to manage news cycles. It’s a bait and switch that magicians must envy.
So, is the attack on Iran another film-flam? Maybe, Partly. Keep in mind that the recently departed “Supreme Leader” had ordered a hit on the US president. Also, we have been in kind of low level war with Iran since 1979 when the first Ayatollah took power and immediately held United States citizens as hostages. Since that time, Iran has been openly and actively engaged in war like behavior against the United States. In the last decade, they have never wavered from the effort to create nuclear weapons despite publicly saying they just wanted nuclear power. Remember they are in the Middle East and have vast reserves of oil and gas. More energy than they need or could use, so the need for nuclear energy is not really plausible. Iran has sponsored anti US and anti Israeli groups thought the Middle East, using money they gained from selling oil. They had skirmishes and wars with other muslim nations in their neighborhood as well.
Finally, there have been some who have voiced concerns that this action gives tacit consent to China vis-a-vie Taiwan, and Russia in Ukraine. I think however that the real message to both China and Russia is somewhat different. The first wave of attacks in Iran took out the political leadership of Iran, essentially their entire navy and much of their command and control structure for air defense. While they still have offensive drone and medium range missiles each time they launch, we attack that launch location so it cannot be used again. Contrast that with the first days of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, where their army was bogged down on the way to Kiev, and were sitting dicks to air attacks. The Russian army was decimated and has been essentially bogged down with minimal advances in the intervening years, as Ukraine has with US and its allies help, struck back not just defending their borders but hitting staging areas and runways inside of Russia. Oh, and one of Russia’s major suppliers of drones has been Iran. I imagine that source of weapons for Russia is drying up. China seeing this has to notice the contrast in US military operations and those of Venezuela, Cuba (the privateer army protecting the Venezuelan president), Russia, and Iran. Perhaps rather than opening a door for China, this activity is serving as a warning that US military is elite, and it is best to stay on “good side” of the United States.
In summary, the attack on Iran can have multiple reasons and goals, much of which cannot not be shared in the moment. Those possible reason may be:
- Its a distraction from ICE activities
- Its revenge against anti USA leadership
- Its protection for neighboring countries in the Middle East
- Its based on intelligence we, the public, are not privy to
- Its cutting off a source of weapons to Russia
- Its sending a warning to China that the US Military is a force to fear
Or maybe it’s something else.